BJS Survey: Serious Violent Victimization Fell 25% in 2025; Overall Violent Crime Change Not Statistically Significant
ANALYSIS · October 27, 2026
Slug: bjs-ncvs-2025-preliminary-victimization-estimates
Package note: This Analysis covers the Bureau of Justice Statistics report Preliminary Victimization Estimates from the NCVS, 2025 (NCJ 312234, October 2026), by BJS statisticians Jennifer L. Truman and Susannah N. Tapp, and the Justice Department’s October 26, 2026 press release about it. The 2025 figures are preliminary and may change when BJS publishes Criminal Victimization, 2025, which it says is forthcoming in 2027. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) measures nonfatal crimes reported by a sample of residents, whether or not they were reported to police. It does not count homicide.
Primary sources
- BJS report page: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/preliminary-victimization-estimates-ncvs-2025
- BJS full report (PDF): https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/pvencvs25.pdf
- DOJ Office of Public Affairs release (October 26, 2026): https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/national-crime-victimization-survey-shows-violent-crime-plummeted-2025
The Bureau of Justice Statistics estimates that U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced 7.5 million violent victimizations in 2025, a rate of 25.7 per 1,000 people, and that households experienced 14.9 million property victimizations, a rate of 111.2 per 1,000 households. BJS reports a statistically significant 25% drop in violent crime excluding simple assault (rape or sexual assault, robbery and aggravated assault), from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 people, and a 19% drop in the property victimization rate. These are the first estimates from the redesigned survey (NCVS-R), which BJS fully adopted in January 2025.
Core Tension
The DOJ release’s subhead says “Non-fatal violent crime dropped 25% from 2024 to 2025.” In the BJS report, the 25% figure applies to violent crime excluding simple assault. The total nonfatal violent victimization rate fell from 28.7 to 25.7 per 1,000 (about 10%), and BJS does not mark that change as statistically significant. The body of the DOJ release states the 25% figure correctly as violent crime excluding simple assault. BJS also cautions that the 2025 numbers are preliminary, come from a redesigned survey that is “not comparable to legacy NCVS estimates,” and rely on a one-time weighting adjustment because October and November 2025 interviews were missed during the lapse in federal appropriations.
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